Wednesday, December 16, 2015


No Republican candidate for president understands there is no real solution to Syria and fighting the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (IS). That’s because there is no unified view by all the nations of who supports or fights who. Here’s why in a nutshell.
The government of Iraq doesn’t care about Syria, only IS in Iraq. They don’t want the Kurds to fight IS but not be independent. They don’t want Turkey in Iraq but they have invited Iran into their country. They tolerate the US presence because we write big checks, but they won’t allow a greater US presence, especially ground forces. That’s in the agreement Presidents Bush and Obama signed.
Turkey supports the militias fighting the government of Syria but they’re fighting the Kurds in both Syria and Iraq. They also don’t want the Kurds to have independence. This is why they closed the border to Kurds but not IS or other militias.
Turkey allows our use of bases in Turkey because we write checks and will turn a blind eye to anything they do against the Kurds in Turkey, just not the Kurds in Iraq or Syria, and we won’t push them to close the border to IS or fight the IS in Syria. We’ll be quiet.
Russia supports the government of Syria, and are fighting the militias fighting against that government, not the IS. Russia won’t care about the IS until the IS begins attacking the Russians or Syria forces.
Iran supports both the government and miltary of Iraq and the government of Syria along with Hezbollah in Lebonan who are fighting the militias fighting the government of Syria.
Saudi Arabi, Diubai, Qatar, UAE, etal, supports the militias fighting the government of Syria and they tolerate the IS because they don’t want the IS conducting attacks against them or in their country.
The NATO countries supports the US attacking the IS but they’re not suporting the militias fighting the government of Syria nor the government of Iraq unless the government there requests the help, which they haven’t.
Sounds confusing, it is due one factor. It’s about the politics of Islam, Sunni and Shite. This is why the US policy supporting the Kurds, the militias fighting the government of Syria, and the government of Iraq is politically and diplomatically problematic. 
And it’s why no Republican candidate has offered a good answer about Syria and Iraq. They wouldn’t do anything more than President Obama is doing without creating new, and worse, problems in Syria and with the government of Iraq.
This is why President Obama isn’t doing more, because that would entail more problems and create new problems militarily, politically or diplomatically. It’s also why Congress won’t debate, let alone pass, a AUMF for fighting the IS.
It’s why it’s good campaign and political debate. Just talk and no action. That’s what politicans like to do, talk a lot, but the President have to decide and act

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