Sunday, March 2, 2014


What we know so far is this.

One, Crimea is 60% Russian and only 25% Ukranian, the rest mostly Tartars.

Two, Crimea has a huge Russian naval and military presence throughout Crimea and in major seaports.

Three, the Ukranian military in Crimea is not equiped to do more than protect themselves.

Four, access to Crimea is though narrow land routes and mostly by air or sea, easily defensible by Russian forces.

Five, Russia supplies a significant amount of natural gas to Ukraine and the European Union which both needs to keep flowing or face serious disruptions in their respective industries and economies.

Six, Putin knows this and more, and has calculated the Ukrainian government, the European Union and the United States can't do anything but express concern and voice threats.

Seven, Putin knows the US and NATO will not engage the Russian forces in Crimea but likely would assist Ukranian forces if Russian forces cross the eastern Ukrainan border.

Eight, Putin wants Crimea and he's willing to do anything for it and pay any price to get it, and he doesn't care what the US, EU and NATO says or even thinks.

Nine, the solution may be to have the UN recognize an independent Crimea nation. The question is if any other member of the UN Security Council would veto the proposal, unless of course it has provisions for the rights of the minority group living there.

Last, option nine wouldn't last long as Russia would assimiliate it into the Russian Federation. So, in short, who really knows but reality knows the alternatives are major conflicts and massive number of casualties.

So, we don't need Republican and Democratic war mongers and hawks rattling verbal sabers and criticizing the President. There isn't much he can do outside of diplomatic pressure on Putin and signal any further action into Ukainian territory would change the US and NATO military position where we have the military capability to assist the Ukrainian military and counter Russian forces.

Let's hope we don't go there because it's not about the Ukraine, it's about Crimea.

No comments:

Post a Comment